What to know about the 2020 Nevada Democratic Caucus

This result represents a huge victory for Bernie Sanders who is now the indisputable frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. He won nearly every demographic group including men, women, strong liberals, somewhat liberals, moderates, non-white voters, hispanic voters, 18-30 year olds, 30-45 years olds, 45-65 year olds, educated voters, non-educated voters, union members, and non-union members. He got second place to Joe Biden among African American voters and in the 45-65 age category.

Nevada more so than the previous states is representative demographically of the party as a whole. Sanders ability to win by such a large margin in this state suggests that he will be able to do the same in the delegate rich super Tuesday states like California and Texas. If that happens he will have acquired an insurmountable delegate lead and likely enter the Democratic convention with a strong delegate plurality or even a majority. He will face a barrage of criticism in the coming days on everything from his health to electablity in a last attempt to stop him from winning. It remains unknown if any of those attacks will be able to peel away voters from Sanders’ notoriously loyal support base.

Biden had his strongest showing of the primary with his second place finish. He continues to do well with African Americans which should bolster him in South Carolina later this week. However his chances of securing the nomination are very slim at this point due to Sanders continued strength across different demographic groups and a very crowded moderate lane which is only going to get worse once Bloomberg joins. 

Pete Buttigieg as expected struggled with minority voters who make up a substantial percentage of the Democratic party. While he still fares well among white educated Democrats, so do many of his competitors, including Sanders. His inability to muster much support in Nevada is not a good sign for him if he wishes to do well in the larger Super Tuesday states. Additionally, like Biden, he does not currently have the financial capability to compete with Sanders and the billionaires in the expensive Super Tuesday media markets. 

For Elizabeth Warren her strong debate performance appeared to have a marginal impact in Nevada. She did fare slightly better with late deciding voters than she did with early voters but still lost to Sanders in that category. She was able to raise a lot of money following the debate which should help sustain her campaign through Super Tuesday but she still lacks the support and resources to mount an effective bid for the nomination. Sanders has edged her out of the liberal lane and Buttigieg and Klobuchar are competing with her for college educated voters. Her best bet at the moment is to wait for the convention and try to win on the second ballot as a unity candidate. Buttigieg is likely to attempt to do the same. 

Amy Klobuchar struggled immensely with another 5th place showing. She did poorly with nearly every demographic group, especially minority voters. Her chances of winning are even slimmer than the candidates listed above. She, like many others, is likely staying in for the chance of being picked in a contested convention. 

Tom Steyer, who invested more time and resources into Iowa than any other candidate, had a particularly poor showing. While he has the money to continue forever, his chances are getting lower every day. This also bodes bad for Bloomberg who, like Steyer, is using his billionaire status in an attempt to win over voters with a barrage of ads. He is not competing in any of the first four states though. The only hope for Steyer is South Carolina where he has invested more time and money than anywhere else. He is currently competing with Sanders for second place in the polls (behind Biden). 

On Saturday South Carolina will be the last state before Super Tuesday to vote. 

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Aaron Lyubansky

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