Who is expected to win each Super Tuesday state

Bernie Sanders is expected to win the most delegates (and votes) on Super Tuesday, with 1,357 out of 3,979 delegates being allocated tomorrow (34%). 1,991 are needed to win a majority and 155 have been awarded in the four pre-Super Tuesday states. The margin of his victory will determine his chances of winning a majority of delegates.

Biden is coming off of momentum from his strong South Carolina showing, but he has also invested far less time, energy, and money into the Super Tuesday states, so his campaign is lacking in organization and presence compared with Sanders and Bloomberg. This will be Bloomberg’s first time on the ballot in this primary and will provide critical insight into how much over 400 million dollars in spending can buy a candidate and how much it can’t.

If things play out the way they are expected to, Sanders will finish ahead of the rest of the field but is unlikely to reach a majority of delegates. Sanders is on track to win most of the West and North-East (including the delegate-rich California) but with proportional delegate distribution and Biden’s apparent strength in the south his wins will only carry him so far. Joe Biden is also expected to do pretty well and could be within striking distance of Sanders. Michael Bloomberg and Elizabeth Warren will collect scattered delegates from various states but are pretty unlikely to win any states outright. Sanders is also expected to win Warren’s home state of Massachusetts which would deal a powerful symbolic blow to her campaign.

Below are estimates on how well each candidate will do in each state:

California (415):

California has by far the highest delegate total. And Sanders is predicted to win nearly half of the states delegate total with an over 90% chance of winning the state. The rest would be allocated proportionally to candidates who win over 15% which will be primarily Biden, with Warren and Bloomberg also getting some.

Texas (228):

This state is far closer than California and is one of the larger prizes of the Democratic primary. Right now Biden is the slight favorite to win the state though his margin would be small enough that he and Sanders would split the delegates nearly evenly. Bloomberg will also likely get a few and Warren even less.

North Carolina (110):

While NC does have a significant drop in delegates from the previously listed states, it’s still more than double than any pre-Super Tuesday state. Biden is a huge favorite to win the state with an 80% chance. He will also probably come away with the most delegates followed by Sanders and Bloomberg.

Virginia (99):

Its similar size and location make it fairly comparable to North Carolina, however Biden is only a moderate favorite to win this state and is likely to be about even with Sanders in delegates. Bloomberg should also pick up a solid amount of delegates, but no one else is expected to get more than a few.

Massachusetts (91):

Sanders is a strong favorite to win Elizabeth Warren’s home state (which borders his own) and a strong share of its delegates with about a 65% chance of winning. Warren is expected to finish second in her home state and still pick up a decent share of delegates and Biden will also likely get a few.

Minnesota (75):

Klobuchar was the slight favorite to win her home state before she dropped out on Monday. Sanders now has an over 60% chance of winning the state though Biden, Bloomberg, and Warren will gain more delegates from her dropping out than Sanders.

Colorado (67):

Sanders is the strong favorite to win Colorado with an 85% chance. He is also projected to get about half of Colorado’s delegates with no one else even coming close.

Tennessee (64):

Biden is the heavy favorite to win this state with a 60% shot. He has a high probability of winning a solid amount of the states delegates with Sanders and Bloomberg splitting the rest (slightly in Sanders’ favor).

Alabama (52):

Biden is an even heavier favorite to win Alaska with an 80% chance. He will also likely take about half of Alabama’s delegates, with Bloomberg and Sanders dividing the rest evenly.

Oklahoma (37):

Biden is a moderate favorite to win Oklahoma, though Bloomberg and Sanders each have about a 25% chance of doing so as well. Oklahoma’s 37 delegates will probably be split pretty evenly between Sanders, Biden, and Bloomberg.

Arkansas (31):

Other than having a few less delegates, Arkansas is looking very similar to its western neighbor, Oklahoma, with Biden is slightly weaker and Sanders slightly stronger.

Utah (29):

This one is a very strong favorite for Sanders with a close to 90% chance of winning the state. Sanders would likely earn about half of Utah’s delegates, with Bloomberg and Warren splitting the rest.

Maine (24):

Sanders also has very good chances in this North-Eastern state which his own home state borders, with an over 70% chance of winning the state and of projection of having twice as many delegates as his nearest competitor.

Vermont (16):

Sanders has an almost-certain (over 99%) chance of winning his home state and is also expected to pick up nearly all of its delegates.

American Samoa Territory (6):

With just six delegates available, this territory is not going to make or break the race for anyone. Sanders is a slight favorite to win, though the States’ delegates will likely be split up pretty evenly.

Democrats abroad (16):

Sanders has a 70% chance of winning the most votes abroad.