Everything you should know before Saturday’s South Carolina Primary

On Saturday, South Carolina will become the fourth and final pre-Super Tuesday state to vote.

63 of the 1,991 delegates a candidate needs to win the nomination will be up for grabs. Anyone who receives more than 15% of the vote is eligible to receive delegates.

Joe Biden is currently leading in the polls and has the highest probability of winning the contest. His strength among African American voters will be key to his victory in this majority African American primary. This would be his first win of the primary and anything other than a win would likely prove catastrophic for his campaign. His second place showing in Nevada, strong debate performance on Tuesday, and the coveted endorsement of influential South Carolina Representative, Jim Cylborn, are helping his chances.

Bernie Sanders, who has one a majority of the votes in the first three states, is currently in second place according to polling. He has been on the rise both in this state and nationally and has dramatically cut into Biden’s lead among African Americans during the past few weeks. South Carolina is relatively inconsequential to his campaign as he is looking to the delegate rich Super Tuesday states where he currently leads by large numbers. However if he were to pull off an upset and win, it would provide a boost to his already high chances of winning the nomination. On the other hand if Biden wins by a large margin it could result in cuts to Sander’s Super Tuesday Majorities in the other southern states.

Tom Steyer has spent over ten million dollars in South Carolina, far more than any other candidate. That spending has brought him to an average third place in the polls, just behind Sanders. He has struggled immensely during the first three contests, not even breaking the top five or 15% delegate barrier in any state. He is counting on a third place finish or preferably a second or first place one to keep his campaign going, though his chances of winning the nomination are quite low at this point and his most recent South Carolina debate performance was not well received.

No one else is anywhere near the 15% needed to earn delegates. Warren, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar all have low levels of minority support, which is critical to do well in states as diverse as South Carolina—and none of them have high enough levels of support among white Americans to make up for it.

South Carolina marks the last state where Bloomberg will not be on the ballot after he controversially chose to skip the first four states. Despite this, he has outspent everyone but Steyer on the airwaves.

Following South Carolina is Super Tuesday on March 3rd, with over 30% of 2020’s Democratic delegates available.